We score every home in your market off public permit and assessor records, then hand you the addresses — so whatever you run at them, mail, ads, or a canvassing crew, lands on the houses that are actually due. In Virginia Beach, the first market we scored, that is 9,342 homes with no replacement on record. Your city has its own number.
Screen share, no deck. If the streets don't look right to you, that is a useful answer and we both move on.
Virginia Beach, VA — the case study. We build this same map for your city.
Every number on this page is measured there. It is the proof, not the product — your market gets its own file.
Mail every door in a city the size of Virginia Beach and about one household in 49 replaces a system that year. Mail the top 2% of the score instead and it's one in 15.
Nothing about your operation changes. You send the same number of pieces to a different list.
2,364 of the 116,152 homes scored replaced their system during the test year. Scores were fixed before the window opened — the model never saw these outcomes. Work done without a permit is invisible to us, so these are floors, not ceilings. Every market we build gets the same test before anyone is asked to buy it.
The file is built to drop straight into the three channels you already run. No integration, no new software, no waiting on anybody.
Every flagged home comes with the owner name and mailing address, ready for your printer. Drop 2,000 pieces at the top of the score instead of 20,000 across a zip code.
2,021 homes currently score at twice the city rate or better — one drop, sized for a real budget.
The same file exports in Meta's Custom Audience format, so you can run ads at exactly these households — then build a lookalike off them to widen reach without losing the signal.
Works with whoever already runs your ads — you hand over the file, they upload it. The full flow is below.
Scores cluster by subdivision, because the houses were built by the same crew in the same year. That turns into a walking route instead of a list of scattered addresses.
Cohort briefs name the neighborhoods turning over now, with the counts you can quote at the door.
The flagged homes ship formatted for a Meta Custom Audience — owner name, city, state, zip. No emails needed.
Drop the file into Ads Manager. Expect 30–50% of records to match to an account — normal for address-based audiences, and still far tighter than a radius.
Your ads serve to the matched households — the homes that actually scored, not everyone within five miles of your shop. A lookalike built off the file widens reach without losing the signal.
The list moves every month as permits land and homes age in. Re-upload it and your ads follow the score.
You or your agency keep the ad account and the budget. We supply the audience — never the ad spend.
That combination is rare, and it is the whole reason this works. Nobody — not the homeowner, not you, not your competitor — can see a twenty-year-old air handler in an attic. The permit record can.
Assessor records give us the age, the assessed value, and who lives there. Building permits tell us what has already been replaced — and, more usefully, what hasn't.
A 1998 house with no mechanical permit on file has either never replaced its system or did it off the books. Both mean the same thing to you: nobody has been back in twenty years.
Same builder, same year, same equipment, same salt air. When one street starts turning over, the rest of it is on the clock — and that shows up in the permit record first.
Same builder, same year, same equipment. These are Virginia Beach subdivisions where the turnover has already started — measured, not guessed. Your city has its own.
| Subdivision | Built | Homes | Replaced in 24 mo | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles Nest | 2007–2015 | 45 | 7 | 15.6% |
| Highland Acres | 1978–2015 | 31 | 4 | 12.9% |
| Lynnfield | 1938–2007 | 31 | 4 | 12.9% |
| Glenwood Links | 1973–2002 | 56 | 7 | 12.5% |
| Chelsea | 1974–2007 | 106 | 13 | 12.3% |
| Malbon Acres | 1987–2000 | 53 | 6 | 11.3% |
| Broad Bay Point Greens | 1975–2006 | 287 | 32 | 11.1% |
| Linkhorn Park | 1921–2010 | 203 | 22 | 10.8% |
Permitted replacements only. Names are public record; the addresses behind them are not on this page.
Shops that already have someone to work a list — comfort advisors, a canvassing crew, a mail budget. We sell the targeting. You still have to knock.
If your work comes entirely from the phone ringing, this won't help you yet, and I'll tell you that on the call rather than after you pay.
Sixty days to walk, and you keep the list you already have. No per-lead pricing, no promised appointments, and none of my money in your ad account.
I open the Virginia Beach map so you can see exactly what yours would look like. You tell me which neighborhoods you already work, and we find out whether the model agrees with you.